GAAVO"S JUNK

(Reader, be aware!!! Awdal, be alert)

Two weeks ago, journalist Mohamed Omer (Hyena) posted a news piece in harowo.com in which he explicitly explained about a collective report by UN-HABITAT and GAAVO.

UN-HABITAT – a United Nations agency who is supposed to help needy people for shelter has been in Borama for the last sixteen years but has never built a room for any one person or family. GAAVO is a privately owned organization in Berbera which offers basic training of carpentry, auto mechanics and computers. Despite the fact that Amoud University is in the back yard of Borama city, a lucrative contract was given to GAAVO by UN-HABITAT to conduct a population count in Borama city. Instead of a proper estimate, GAAVO reported back junk and further proved the globally known principle of “garbage in garbage out”.

The term “garbage in garbage out” is used in any field and in any situation in which it is difficult to create a good result when given bad input. It is also commonly used to describe failures in human decision making due to faulty and imprecise data. The work of GAAVO in this project is a classic example of junk data input which resulted unreliable worthless conclusion. Hence, GAAVO had earned the privilege to be used as an example of the garbage principle. In other words from several days of inaccurate data collection and misrepresentation, GAAVO came up with an unwanted report which was faulty at best and really bad judgment at the worst.

Journalist Mohamed Omer reported:

“Warbixin ku qornayd qoraal ay soo bandhigtay hay'adda UN-Habitat, ayaa waxa ay hay'addu faafaahin ka bixisay tirada guryaha iyo dadka ku nool magaalada Boorama oo ay hay'adda UN-Habitat ku qiyaastay 76,208.”

That is pure junk and undermines the real population of the city of Borama. No wonder it was rejected by every one in Borama including the ten year olds and down. UN-HABITAT and GAAVO peddled arrant nonsense and as was obvious the report was based on unjustified assumptions and undermined by mischievous claims. The report was laughable in comparison to the estimates of the local governments and the public as a whole. Check out the following:

“Qaar ka mid ah aqoonyahankii ka qayb galay aqoon-isweydaarsigan, ayaa sheegay in surveygan oo lagu qaaday qalabka loo yaqaan GPS ka aanu hayn mid sax ah oo ka turjumi kara xaqiiqada runta ah.”
Wariye M. Omer

The use of the Global Positioning System (GPS) as sophisticated as it is, with its modern techniques, is not some kind of a process that can easily be claimed in glowing terms. One can not simply waste time sitting in the hotels and restaurants and then again claim to have used the sophisticated technology of GPS. Global Positioning Systems are space-based radio positioning systems that provide 24 hour three dimensional position, velocity and time information to suitably equipped users. GPS systems receive data that is sensitive enough to map blocks of a city. Importantly, all GPS receivers must receive signal transmission from at least 4 satellites to calculate an accurate position.

Understanding and defining the accuracy needs of the project is crucial to ensure successful use of the GPS. Sophisticated computers and post processing software are crucial also along with a high considerable amount of time. Very well trained, qualified personnel who have the expertise of how the technology works, how the GPS data is collected and how it is interpreted and used in the context of measure surveys is also important. All are dependant to one another and are important yet complicated. In respect to all the needs, I don’t think a basic training organization of carpentry and auto mechanics like GAAVO is capable of using the Global Positioning System.

Despite GPS technology, there are many opportunities for errors to be introduced in the process. User mistakes can cause major errors. Receiver errors from software as well as noise and bias errors can sabotage the process. Improper interpretation of the data can risk the whole process to be considered as junk. If the personnel have not the necessary expertise to take the steps to minimize their impact, undercount can be particularly high. A case in point is what happened in Nigeria when proper process was not followed –

“Lalasz (2006) reported that the 1991 Census is thought to have undercounted Nigeria’s population (officially put at 89 million) by perhaps 20 million people.”

That is what happens when non-qualified personnel are let to do the job of using the GPS. I think it is now clear that GAAVO muddled up with the project and that the organization involved itself with some thing out of its know how zone and expertise. Its methods have very much undercounted the population estimate of Borama city. To make some analysis, it is agreed upon that 62,000-67,000 voted in Borama in the last election. If we take the GAAVO estimate as is 76,208, and subtract it from the least number of the voters 62,000, we get 14,208. This number comprises of all those under the age of legal voting age plus all those who never voted for any reason plus all those who were away in the election time but came back home, plus the spoiled votes that were not counted etc. etc. But that makes no sense. The number should be way more than the 14,208. Hence, the UN-HABITAT GAAVO estimate is dead wrong.

There are a lot of other methods that are reliable to use, less expensive and in some cases need no spending money or time. To try one that is widely accepted, considered satisfactory and needs no effort let alone a fortune or time, check the following term and follow the calculations:

“3 times the registered voters give a good population estimate.”

Now, if the agreed number of those who voted is 62,000 and that is taking the least number of the range, and multiplying by the 3 the result is 186,000. Now check the local government’s number:


“Aqoonyahankii iyo maamulka dawladda Hoose ayaa iyagu ku qiyaasay dadka ku noo magaalada boorama in ka badan 150, 000 oo qof.”

The numbers make sense now. And that is in respect to the time of voting. Other sophisticated methods can be used here but I think that there is no need to further complicate the matter as this gives us a clear estimate. This shows us that the GAAVO UN-HABITAT project was a complete fiasco. UN-HABITAT could have exercised some logic and at least built few houses for the needy that have been waiting for an action for the last sixteen years instead of this extravagancy. As far as the population count is concerned, I think it is fair to say that we keep our estimation number for Borama city and garbage the junk by UN-HABITAT and GAAVO.

Another way to have done the job well was that UN-HABITAT hires fifty of the locals and let them count the population. I am sure the locals would have counted every one and come up with accurate number with ease. Serious doubts that can be raised is the fact that, one might ask why the lucrative contract was given to GAAVO while the number one university of Somaliland (Amoud) is just next door. How come UN-HABITAT had done nothing for the needy people but all of a sudden had the ability to fund such an expensive contract. Well, I guess the answer is that some people are spoon fed at the expense of others. That policy has been in the works for years and years. But what is mind-boggling is why the United Nations agencies are allowed to be used as cold war weapons against Awdal.

Another logical question is why only Borama is subjected to population count while other cities like Hargeisa, Berbera, Burco and Gabiley are not. Simply put, the answer to me is that there are intentions behind the whole drama. Population figures are used to help calculate federal funding for regional and local governments and determine representation as well as international aid. In simple terms, the less the population, the less of every thing a city or region receives. In this matter where Borama population is undercounted, it faces to lose significantly in every side of the equation.

Some may argue that this was an isolated incident, but the fact that this kind of things have been going on for quite a while now, proves the intentions behind. United Nations agencies are always fed nonsense and unfortunately that garbage fed becomes the norm. Check out the following garbage that was fed to a United Nations agency which might have become the reality in its records:

“The MRG described the Somali clans of Darood, Hawiye and Isaaq as minorities who were under threat...”

This kind of garbage is always the input in the global arenas and the intention is quite clear. That kind of flip flopping plays well in the global games of politics and is a sure thing that it benefits the multi-colored faces of the junk feeders.

In today’s age of information technology, Internet has become the most important media. Thanks to it, a sentence of garbage gets read by millions in seconds and who knows how many of the millions right away put in record and believes the junk.

We know that UN-HABITAT and GAAVO report is garbage and surely I believe that there were hidden agendas. To avoid such, I urge the local governments of Awdal and the elites to always be alert and not to allow any group or organizations to muddle through Awdal affairs without first checking their qualifications and expertise. I also urge to discuss in details the future implication of such matters. I encourage the local governments also to demand to do their own matters instead of being done by others. I am sure Awdal out smarts any region. All in all, as was figured out by the residents of Borama city, the report by UN-HABITAT and GAAVO was garbage, we therefore are better off by keeping ours and consider the UN-HABITAT estimate (76,208) as that of Magaalo Qalooc.

P/S In any shape or form, Saaxil baa tirrin Awdal kaa aqbali maayo.


Suleiman Abdi Dugsiye
Ottawa, Canada